Are we seeing the early stages of a terminal illness for the GOP? If Obama wins on Nov. 4th, particularly if he flips reliable red states (think Virginia), I think it's entirely possible that the internal strife that has been smoldering beneath the Republican surface could come to a head, and the GOP could become the Whig Party of our generation. Maybe it's not yet probable, but it's possible.
To be sure, the Republican party has been an uneasy alliance for several decades now. Neoconservatives, Paleoconservatives, and Social Conservatives have never liked each other. But the events of the past few years have shown that the GOP's leadership is inept at satisfying the wants of any of their constituent groups. The neo-cons have a failed war in Iraq and their foreign policy is despised at home and abroad. The paleo-cons and other fiscal conservatives have been betrayed by the party with the bailout. And, as always, for the last eight years the social cons have been patted on the head and told to go outside and play with the other kids.
The McCain/Palin ticket is a perfect example of this. They've got the angry, flustered neo-con, still rattling his saber at Russia and calling for 100 years in Iraq. They've got his social con sidekick/comic relief who can't even keep the party line straight on foreign policies. And the fiscal conservatives, who thought they were going to have a seat at the table with Mitt Romney, have totally been left out in the cold. If Obama goes much over 300 electoral votes and/or the Dems make significant gains in the House, I don't see how that marriage will last.
Add to the mix the rise of the young, urban evangelical. I'll call us "latte-cons". We're under 30, we're college educated, and we'd rather read Donald Miller or Rick Warren than Chuck Colson or James Dobson. We're passionate about our faith and about social justice issues, we like to vote, and we don't feel tied to the political alliances of our fathers in the faith. We aren't pro-choice, but we aren't pro-Iraq war either, and we haven't made up our minds about gay marriage. The Democrats recognized our growing influence by nominating Obama, a man of strong faith who doesn't drink the neo-con kool-aid, and I think they're going to reap the rewards for that on Nov. 4th. I think we may well represent a 2-3% defection from the GOP, and in a divided nation, that's a lot. The Republicans will continue to ignore us at their peril, and our growth will mean that they lose the evangelical vote in the next generation once we're in charge of churches and ministries, if they continue on the path they are on.
I don't know how many of you have seen this, but we latte-cons have been getting quite the scolding from the likes of Albert Mohler and Robert George. The old guard of evangelicalism isn't happy that we're tending towards Obama. However right they may be (and I don't think they are), their condescending tone and demonization of Barack is going to further alienate us and reinforce our view of them as Republican surrogates rather than independent Christian thinkers. I'm not sure what George was thinking when he wrote his essay, but if he thought it was going to bring us back into the fold, I'd like a toke of what he's smoking.
Add to Republican death knell the rise of the Ron Paul conservatives. They are a rebirth of paleoconservatism and libertarianism that has found a likeable leader in Paul, an OB/GYN from Texas who's got a pretty impressive obsession with the constitution. They've attracted a few screwballs, but they've also attracted some intellectual heavy-weights (like our very own Chris "The Yellow Dart" Bauer), and they've got unbelievable fundraising and organizational skills. I think they're about done with the GOP. Again, this will represent another 2-3% defection from the Republican ranks, far too much for a party on the defensive to sustain. They're a force to be reckoned with (as my dad used to say, it's not the size of the dog in the fight, it's the size of the fight in the dog) and I don't think they've found a home in a party yet. When they do, watch out if you find yourself against them in an election.
So what will happen if the GOP goes down? Only time will tell, but I think one thing is certain: the great neo-con/fiscal-con/social-con experiemnt is over, and conservatives of all stripes have some soul searching to do. In the meantime, welcome to the new golden age of progressivism...
To be sure, the Republican party has been an uneasy alliance for several decades now. Neoconservatives, Paleoconservatives, and Social Conservatives have never liked each other. But the events of the past few years have shown that the GOP's leadership is inept at satisfying the wants of any of their constituent groups. The neo-cons have a failed war in Iraq and their foreign policy is despised at home and abroad. The paleo-cons and other fiscal conservatives have been betrayed by the party with the bailout. And, as always, for the last eight years the social cons have been patted on the head and told to go outside and play with the other kids.
The McCain/Palin ticket is a perfect example of this. They've got the angry, flustered neo-con, still rattling his saber at Russia and calling for 100 years in Iraq. They've got his social con sidekick/comic relief who can't even keep the party line straight on foreign policies. And the fiscal conservatives, who thought they were going to have a seat at the table with Mitt Romney, have totally been left out in the cold. If Obama goes much over 300 electoral votes and/or the Dems make significant gains in the House, I don't see how that marriage will last.
Add to the mix the rise of the young, urban evangelical. I'll call us "latte-cons". We're under 30, we're college educated, and we'd rather read Donald Miller or Rick Warren than Chuck Colson or James Dobson. We're passionate about our faith and about social justice issues, we like to vote, and we don't feel tied to the political alliances of our fathers in the faith. We aren't pro-choice, but we aren't pro-Iraq war either, and we haven't made up our minds about gay marriage. The Democrats recognized our growing influence by nominating Obama, a man of strong faith who doesn't drink the neo-con kool-aid, and I think they're going to reap the rewards for that on Nov. 4th. I think we may well represent a 2-3% defection from the GOP, and in a divided nation, that's a lot. The Republicans will continue to ignore us at their peril, and our growth will mean that they lose the evangelical vote in the next generation once we're in charge of churches and ministries, if they continue on the path they are on.
I don't know how many of you have seen this, but we latte-cons have been getting quite the scolding from the likes of Albert Mohler and Robert George. The old guard of evangelicalism isn't happy that we're tending towards Obama. However right they may be (and I don't think they are), their condescending tone and demonization of Barack is going to further alienate us and reinforce our view of them as Republican surrogates rather than independent Christian thinkers. I'm not sure what George was thinking when he wrote his essay, but if he thought it was going to bring us back into the fold, I'd like a toke of what he's smoking.
Add to Republican death knell the rise of the Ron Paul conservatives. They are a rebirth of paleoconservatism and libertarianism that has found a likeable leader in Paul, an OB/GYN from Texas who's got a pretty impressive obsession with the constitution. They've attracted a few screwballs, but they've also attracted some intellectual heavy-weights (like our very own Chris "The Yellow Dart" Bauer), and they've got unbelievable fundraising and organizational skills. I think they're about done with the GOP. Again, this will represent another 2-3% defection from the Republican ranks, far too much for a party on the defensive to sustain. They're a force to be reckoned with (as my dad used to say, it's not the size of the dog in the fight, it's the size of the fight in the dog) and I don't think they've found a home in a party yet. When they do, watch out if you find yourself against them in an election.
So what will happen if the GOP goes down? Only time will tell, but I think one thing is certain: the great neo-con/fiscal-con/social-con experiemnt is over, and conservatives of all stripes have some soul searching to do. In the meantime, welcome to the new golden age of progressivism...
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